Tag: Methods

I Called the Parabolic Top and Forecasted the 2008 Decline in Commodities

I Also Called the Parabolic Top and Forecasted the 2008 Decline in Commodities

Here are a few quotes from the commentary section of recent Research letters. Understand that the detailed analysis and charts have not been included here. Also, what you see below is only representative of portions of the commentary section on equities.

"These are parabolic advances that have been driven by speculation. Such advances are NOT sustainable. This is not to say that the parabolic advance can’t still push higher, because it certainly can and I want to make it perfectly clear that at present I do not have any indication that a top has been seen. But, what I’m telling you is that like housing, this too, is a bubble and it will burst...."

"Now let’s review the statistic I have been watching. There have been four 3-year cycles in the CRB that have topped out in *** months or less and 100% of those cycles moved below the previous 3-year cycle low. Also, all four of these 3-year cycles were associated with major long-term tops in the CRB and the underlying commodity complex. With the last 3-year cycle low occurring in ***, *** marks the **th month for this cycle. Thus far, the price highs have occurred in July. Again, the key will be whether or not the bounce out of these intermediate-term oversold levels betters the July highs after the last trading day of ***. If not, then we should have a major top in place...."

My Methods

My technical studies are based on my knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory. My knowledge of cycles is based on the methods I learned from Walter Bressert. My knowledge of Dow Theory has come from my studies of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, and Richard Russell. If you are familiar with these names you should realize that I believe in the old traditional methods of market analysis. It is obvious to me that these are the best tools available to market students today. Yet, I find that these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.

In short, I use the Dow Theory and the longer-term cycles to paint the longer-term picture. Cycle analysis is simply a method of analyzing various trends of various degrees. I then data mining techniques to develop high probability expectation for the future. Then, I use the intermediate-term and short-term statistics along with the Cycle Turn Indicator to guide me as the longer-term picture unfolds.

These methods were used to call the 2000 top in the stock markets as well as the projections for the 2002 4-year cycle low. I also identified the top in housing using these methods in 2005. I continue to use these same methods today. These methods allowed me to identify the stretched 4-year cycle in the equity markets that finally topped in 2007 as well as what I now believe was the 4-year cycle low in January 2008. Then, as the equity markets advanced out of the January 2007 lows I was able to warn my subscribers that we were facing a potential 1930's cyclical scenario. These same statistical methods were also used to call the 2008 low in the dollar as well as the 2008 top in commodities. This is all documented in my newsletters.

More current research is available monthly with a subscription to Cycles News & Views. With a subscription to Cycles News & Views also comes access to my shorter-term market commentary and proprietary turn indicators. My service is not the average 3 to 5 page newsletter. It is a very detailed in-depth research document that averages some 20 pages. Cycles News & Views provides comprehensive research based on Dow theory and trend quantifications, known as cycles, and most importantly the market direction based on my proprietary Cycle Turn Indicator.

Our Purpose

The purpose of this site is to provide investors with a place where they can obtain truthful, non biased, factual information about the financial markets. My primary focus is on the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Gold market, the Dollar, T-Bonds and even Oil. The information presented in this site is based on technical analysis. It is not based on the Hope and Hype heard by the so-called mainstream "analysts."

Quick Quotes

Hi Tim, I am a new subscriber only a few days ago and was astounded at the detail and depth of your work during my initial reading. This is superb and extremely conscientious work. Thank-you! Thanks so much, - M.B.

Hi Tim, I signed up for your service for another year. At $300 it is a bargain...Thanks for your great data. - D.E.

Contact Us

Cycles News & Views, LLC
1545 Gulf Shores Parkway, PMB # 251
Gulf Shores, Alabama 36542
504-208-9781


DISCLAIMER
This service is intended to be educational in nature and is not meant to be specific investment advise.
All sales are final.